- Magnitude 8.4 Scenario: Tsunami Simulations Show Devastating Impact on Northern Philippines.
- The Manila Trench Awakens: Tsunami Danger Looms Over Northern Coasts.
- Racing Against Time: Tsunami Threat Emerges After Series of Powerful Earthquakes.
A series of offshore earthquakes near Santa Catalina, Ilocos Sur, has raised concerns about a potential major seismic event and subsequent tsunami. The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) has traced these quakes to the Manila Trench, a deep-sea trench known for its potential to generate powerful earthquakes.
Since December 17th, 49 earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 1.8 to 5.0 have been recorded in the area. These seismic activities have heightened fears of a worst-case scenario: a magnitude 8.4 earthquake originating from this segment of the Manila Trench.
PHIVOLCS, through tsunami simulations, has divided the Manila Trench into segments to better assess the risks. The simulations indicate that a major earthquake could trigger a devastating tsunami with waves ranging from 3 to 15 meters in height.
"Once it produces a tsunami, the first wave could reach the shores of Zambales, Pangasinan, La Union, Ilocos Sur, Ilocos Norte, and Cagayan within two to 15 minutes. Meanwhile, the wave height could reach up to 3 to 15 meters," PHIVOLCS stated.
The simulations predict that the tsunami could arrive in Palauig, Zambales, in as little as two minutes. The highest waves, reaching up to 14.7 meters, are expected to impact Vigan, Ilocos Sur.
While these findings underscore the potential for a significant seismic event, PHIVOLCS emphasizes that precise earthquake and tsunami predictions are impossible. The agency urges the public to remain vigilant and be aware of the following potential tsunami warning signs:
- Strong earthquake: A significant earthquake can be an early indicator of a potential tsunami.
- Sudden changes in sea level: The sea may rapidly recede or rise unexpectedly before a tsunami wave arrives.
- Unusual sounds coming from the sea: Rumbling or roaring sounds from the ocean may precede a tsunami.
PHIVOLCS continues to closely monitor seismic activity in the region and will provide updates as necessary.
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