The low pressure area outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) may strengthen into a tropical storm and most likely to landfall over Negros Island on Christmas Day (Dec. 25). This is according to the latest PAGASA track issued this morning.
Based on the available data from PAGASA, as of December 21, as of 10:00 AM today, the Low Pressure Area was estimated at 410 km East Southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur (6.4°N,129.5°E).
It has maximum winds of 45 km/h and gustiness of up to 60 km/h.
Forecast Positions and Intensities:
Dec. 22, 2019 - 1,430 km East of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur (Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur) (OUTSIDE PAR) (06.9°N, 139.2°E)
Tropical Depression
Dec. 23, 2019 - 875 km East of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur (08.5°N, 134.3°E)
Tropical Storm
Dec. 24, 2019 - 515 km East of Surigao City, Surigao del Norte (09.8°N, 130.2°E)
Tropical Storm
Dec. 25, 2019 - 80 km North Northwest of Mactan City, Cebu or 15 km Northeast of Escalante City, Negros Occidental (10.9°N, 123.6°E)
Tropical Storm
Dec. 26, 2019 - 145 km West Southwest of Coron, Palawan (11.4°N, 119.0°E)
Severe Tropical Storm
Once it will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) between Sunday night and Monday morning, it will be named "URSULA". TD is forecast to make landfall between Eastern Visayas and Caraga area on Tuesday (24 December) evening or Wednesday (25 December) early morning. It will traverse the Visayas area. Beginning Tuesday (24 December), moderate to occasionally heavy rains may prevail over Visayas and northeastern Mindanao.
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