BACOLOD CITY, Philippines – The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) has reported that magma beneath Kanlaon Volcano has risen to less than five kilometers from the crater, raising concerns about potential volcanic activity. Phivolcs Director Teresito Bacolcol stated that the agency is closely monitoring the situation, particularly noting that the eastern side of the volcano is swollen, a clear sign of magma accumulation near the crater.
Alert Level 3 Remains in Effect
Kanlaon Volcano remains under Alert Level 3, indicating magmatic unrest. Bacolcol emphasized that while the eastern side of the volcano is inflating due to magma movement, the swelling is not occurring uniformly across all sides of the volcano. This localized inflation suggests that the magma is concentrating in specific areas, increasing the risk of volcanic activity.
Decrease in Sulfur Dioxide Emissions
Phivolcs has observed a significant drop in sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emissions, from over 4,000 tons in June 2023 to 2,183 tons as of Sunday. While this reduction might seem like a positive sign, Bacolcol cautioned that it could also indicate the volcanic conduit is plugged. The absence of ash emissions since February 7 further supports this theory, as a plugged conduit can lead to pressure build-up, potentially resulting in a sudden and explosive eruption.
Possible Scenarios for Kanlaon Volcano
Phivolcs has outlined three possible scenarios for Kanlaon Volcano based on current observations:
- Slow Rise of Magma: In this scenario, magma could slowly rise and eventually overflow from the crater, similar to the lava flows observed at Mt. Mayon in 2023. This would result in a relatively controlled release of volcanic material.
- Fast Rise of Magma and Plugged Conduit: A rapid rise of magma combined with a plugged conduit could lead to a strong explosive eruption. This scenario would produce hazardous pyroclastic density currents (fast-moving flows of hot gas and volcanic material) and necessitate an expansion of the danger zone to up to 10 kilometers from the crater.
- Weakening of Magma Movement: The third scenario involves a gradual weakening of magma movement, reducing the likelihood of a significant eruption.
Bacolcol assured the public that Kanlaon Volcano is not currently experiencing the second, more dangerous scenario. However, he emphasized the importance of vigilance, as volcanic conditions can change rapidly.
Preparedness and Safety Measures
Residents living near Kanlaon Volcano are urged to remain alert and follow advisories from Phivolcs and local government units. The agency continues to monitor the volcano 24/7, using ground-based instruments and satellite data to track any changes in activity.
Bacolcol also reminded the public that while Kanlaon is not yet in a critical state, the potential for sudden eruptions remains. He advised against entering the four-kilometer permanent danger zone, as sudden steam-driven or phreatic explosions can occur without warning.
Historical Context
Kanlaon Volcano, one of the most active volcanoes in the Philippines, has a history of both quiet lava flows and explosive eruptions. Its last major eruption occurred in 2016, prompting evacuations and widespread concern. The current unrest serves as a reminder of the volcano’s unpredictable nature and the need for continuous monitoring and preparedness.
Looking Ahead
As Phivolcs continues to monitor Kanlaon Volcano, the agency will provide regular updates to ensure the safety of nearby communities. Residents and local authorities are encouraged to stay informed and prepared for any changes in volcanic activity.
For now, Kanlaon remains under close watch, with scientists working tirelessly to understand its behavior and mitigate potential risks. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the volcano’s activity escalates or subsides, but one thing is certain: vigilance and preparedness are key to ensuring the safety of those living in its shadow.
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