The University of the Philippines research team said on Thursday that the number of COVID-19 cases in the Philippines could reach 40,000 by June 30. The look ahead projection is based on the current trend of the available COVID-19 data, Professor Guido David said during a press briefing.
“Right now, ‘yung projection namin, ginamit lang namin ‘yung R0 (pronounced R-naught) na 1.2 sa Philippines. So ‘yung projection actually is nasa 40,000 cases by June 30,” said David.
The reproduction number (RO) is used to mesure the transmission potential of a disease.
“In-assume lang namin na 1.2. Kung bumaba ‘yung R0—which is bumababa pa—kasi yung NCR less than 1 ‘yung R0 so pag i-project natin ‘yan, mas konti naman ‘yung cases,” David explained.
However, David said that the figure are just estimate of the reality and it could be different from the actual results.
“Kapag may forecast kami, hindi naman namin sinasabi na ‘yan talaga ang lalabas. Nakadepend siya sa factors and nakadepend siya sa data na pinoprovide ng DOH,” he added.
Our data suggest that a premature relaxation of the ECQ in the NCR (National Capital Region) may result in an escalation of 24,000 cases and 1,700 deaths by June 15, 2020,” it said.
Meanwhile, as of Wednesday the number of COVID-19 cases in the country was at 23,732 with 4,895 who have recovered and 1,027 died of the disease.
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